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A criticism of the article "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation"
(be gentle, it's my first RI attempt, :P; I hope I can make justice to the subject, this is my layman understanding of many macro subjects which may be flawed...I hope you can illuminate me if I have fallen short of a good RI) Introduction So, today a heterodox leaning Argentinian newspaper, Ambito Financiero, published an article criticizing monetarism called "Six monetarist errors: why emission won't feed inflation". I find it doesn't properly address monetarism, confuses it with other "economic schools" for whatever the term is worth today and it may be misleading, so I was inspired to write a refutation and share it with all of you. In some ways criticizing monetarism is more of a historical discussion given the mainstream has changed since then. Stuff like New Keynesian models are the bleeding edge, not Milton Friedman style monetarism. It's more of a symptom that Argentinian political culture is kind of stuck in the 70s on economics that this things keep being discussed. Before getting to the meat of the argument, it's good to have in mind some common definitions about money supply measures (specifically, MB, M1 and M2). These definitions apply to US but one can find analogous stuff for other countries. Argentina, for the lack of access to credit given its economic mismanagement and a government income decrease because of the recession, is monetizing deficits way more than before (like half of the budget, apparently, it's money financed) yet we have seen some disinflation (worth mentioning there are widespread price freezes since a few months ago). The author reasons that monetary phenomena cannot explain inflation properly and that other explanations are needed and condemns monetarism. Here are the six points he makes: 1.Is it a mechanical rule?
This way, we can ask by symmetry: if a certainty exists that when emission increases, inflation increases, the reverse should happen when emission becomes negative, obtaining negative inflation. Nonetheless, we know this happens: prices have an easier time increasing and a lot of rigidity decreasing. So the identity between emission and inflation is not like that, deflation almost never exists and the price movement rhythm cannot be controlled remotely only with money quantity. There is no mechanical relationship between one thing and the other.
First, the low hanging fruit: deflation is not that uncommon, for those of you that live in US and Europe it should be obvious given the difficulties central banks had to achieve their targets, but even Argentina has seen deflation during its depression 20 years ago. Second, we have to be careful with what we mean by emission. A statement of quantity theory of money (extracted from "Money Growth and Inflation: How Long is the Long-Run?") would say:
Inflation occurs when the average level of prices increases. Individual price increases in and of themselves do not equal inflation, but an overall pattern of price increases does. The price level observed in the economy is that which leads the quantity of money supplied to equal the quantity of money demanded. The quantity of money supplied is largely controlled by the [central bank]. When the supply of money increases or decreases, the price level must adjust to equate the quantity of money demanded throughout the economy with the quantity of money supplied. The quantity of money demanded depends not only on the price level but also on the level of real income, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), and a variety of other factors including the level of interest rates and technological advances such as the invention of automated teller machines. Money demand is widely thought to increase roughly proportionally with the price level and with real income. That is, if prices go up by 10 percent, or if real income increases by 10 percent, empirical evidence suggests people want to hold 10 percent more money. When the money supply grows faster than the money demand associated with rising real incomes and other factors, the price level must rise to equate supply and demand. That is, inflation occurs. This situation is often referred to as too many dollars chasing too few goods. Note that this theory does not predict that any money-supply growth will lead to inflation—only that part of money supply growth that exceeds the increase in money demand associated with rising real GDP (holding the other factors constant).
So it's not mere emission, but money supply growing faster than money demand which we should consider. So negative emission is not necessary condition for deflation in this theory. It's worth mentioning that the relationship with prices is observed for a broad measure of money (M2) and after a lag. From the same source of this excerpt one can observe in Fig. 3a the correlation between inflation and money growth for US becomes stronger the longer data is averaged. Price rigidities don't have to change this long term relationship per se. But what about causality and Argentina? This neat paper shows regressions in two historical periods: 1976-1989 and 1991-2001. The same relationship between M2 and inflation is observed, stronger in the first, highly inflationary period and weaker in the second, more stable, period. The regressions a 1-1 relationship in the high inflation period but deviates a bit in the low inflation period (yet the relationship is still there). Granger causality, as interpreted in the paper, shows prices caused money growth in the high inflation period (arguably because spending was monetized) while the reverse was true for the more stable period. So one can argue that there is a mechanical relationship, albeit one that is more complicated than simple QTOM theory. The relationship is complicated too for low inflation economies, it gets more relevant the higher inflation is. Another point the author makes is that liquidity trap is often ignored. I'll ignore the fact that you need specific conditions for the liquidity trap to be relevant to Argentina and address the point. Worth noting that while market monetarists (not exactly old fashioned monetarists) prefer alternative explanations for monetary policy with very low interest rates, this phenomena has a good monetary basis, as explained by Krugman in his famous japanese liquidity trap paper and his NYT blog (See this and this for some relevant articles). The simplified version is that while inflation may follow M2 growth with all the qualifiers needed, central banks may find difficulties targeting inflation when interest rates are low and agents are used to credible inflation targets. Central banks can change MB, not M2 and in normal times is good enough, but at those times M2 is out of control and "credibly irresponsible" policies are needed to return to normal (a more detailed explanation can be found in that paper I just linked, go for it if you are still curious). It's not like monetary policy is not good, it's that central banks have to do very unconventional stuff to achieve in a low interest rate environment. It's still an open problem but given symmetric inflation targeting policies are becoming more popular I'm optimistic. 2 - Has inflation one or many causes?
In Argentina we know that the main determinant of inflation is dollar price increases. On that, economic concentration of key markets, utility price adjustments, fuel prices, distributive struggles, external commodity values, expectatives, productive disequilibrium, world interest rates, the economic cycle, stationality and external sector restrictions act on it too. Let's see a simple example: during Macri's government since mid 2017 to 2019 emission was practically null, but when in 2018 the dollar value doubled, inflation doubled too (it went from 24% to 48% in 2018) and it went up again a year later. We see here that the empirical validity of monetarist theory was absent.
For the first paragraph, one could try to run econometric tests for all those variables, at least from my layman perspective. But given that it doesn't pass the smell test (has any country used that in its favor ignoring monetary policy? Also, I have shown there is at least some evidence for the money-price relationship before), I'll try to address what happened in Macri's government and if monetarism (or at least some reasonable extension of it) cannot account for it. For a complete description of macroeconomic policy on that period, Sturzenegger account is a good one (even if a bit unreliable given he was the central banker for that government and he is considered to have been a failure). The short version is that central banks uses bonds to manage monetary policy and absorb money; given the history of defaults for the country, the Argentinian Central Bank (BCRA) uses its own peso denominated bonds instead of using treasury bonds. At that time period, the BCRA still financed the treasury but the amount got reduced. Also, it emitted pesos to buy dollar reserves, then sterilized them, maybe risking credibility further. Near the end of 2017 it was evident the government had limited appetite for budget cuts, it had kind of abandoned its inflation target regime and the classic problem of fiscal dominance emerged, as it's shown in the classic "Unpleasant monetarist arithmetic" paper by Wallace and Sargent. Monetary policy gets less effective when the real value of bonds falls, and raising interest rates may be counterproductive in that environment. Rational expectations are needed to complement QTOM. So, given that Argentina promised to go nowhere with reform, it was expected that money financing would increase at some point in the future and BCRA bonds were dumped in 2018 and 2019 as their value was perceived to have decreased, and so peso demand decreased. It's not that the dollar value increased and inflation followed, but instead that peso demand fell suddenly! The IMF deal asked for MB growth to be null or almost null but that doesn't say a lot about M2 (which it's the relevant variable here). Without credible policies, the peso demand keeps falling because bonds are dumped even more (see 2019 for a hilariously brutal example of that). It's not emission per se, but rather that it doesn't adjust properly to peso demand (which is falling). That doesn't mean increasing interest rates is enough to achieve it, following Wallace and Sargent model. This is less a strict proof that a monetary phenomenon is involved and more stating that the author hasn't shown any problem with that, there are reasonable models for this situation. It doesn't look like an clear empirical failure to me yet. 3 - Of what we are talking about when we talk about emission? The author mentions many money measures (M0, M1, M2) but it doesn't address it meaningfully as I tried to do above. It feels more like a rhetorical device because there is no point here except "this stuff exists". Also, it's worth pointing that there are actual criticisms to make to Friedman on those grounds. He failed to forecast US inflation at some points when he switched to M1 instead of using M2, although he later reverted that. Monetarism kind of "failed" there (it also "failed" in the sense that modern central banks don't use money, but instead interest rates as their main tool; "failed" because despite being outdated, it was influential to modern central banking). This is often brought to this kind of discussions like if economics hasn't moved beyond that. For an account of Friedman thoughts on monetary policies and his failures, see this. 4 - Why do many countries print and inflation doesn't increase there? There is a mention about the japanese situation in the 90s (the liquidity trap) which I have addressed. The author mentions that many countries "printed" like crazy during the pandemic, and he says:
Monetarism apologists answer, when confronted with those grave empirical problems that happen in "serious countries", that the population "trusts" their monetary authorities, even increasing the money demand in those place despite the emission. Curious, though, it's an appeal to "trust" implying that the relationship between emission and inflation is not objective, but subjective and cultural: an appreciation that abandons mechanicism and the basic certainty of monetarism, because evaluations and diagnostics, many times ideologic, contextual or historical intervene..
That's just a restatement of applying rational expectations to central bank operations. I don't see a problem with that. Rational expectations is not magic, it's an assessment of future earnings by economic actors. Humans may not 100% rational but central banking somehow works on many countries. You cannot just say that people are ideologues and let it at that. What's your model? Worth noting the author shills for bitcoin a bit in this section, for more cringe. 5 - Are we talking of a physical science or a social science? Again, a vague mention of rational expectations ("populists and pro market politicians could do the same policies with different results because of how agents respond ideologically and expectatives") without handling the subject meaningfully. It criticizes universal macroeconomic rules that apply everywhere (this is often used to dismiss evidence from other countries uncritically more than as a meaningful point). 6 - How limits work?
The last question to monetarism allows to recognize it something: effectively we can think on a type of vinculation between emission and inflation in extreme conditions. That means, with no monetary rule, no government has the need of taxes but instead can emit and spend all it needs without consequence. We know it's not like that: no government can print infinitely without undesirable effects.
Ok, good disclaimer, but given what he wrote before, what's the mechanism which causes money printing to be inflationary at some point? It was rejected before but now it seems that it exists. What was even the point of the article?
Now, the problem is thinking monetarism on its extremes: without emission we have inflation sometimes, on others we have no inflation with emission, we know that if we have negative emission that doesn't guarantees us negative inflation, but that if emission is radically uncontrolled there will economic effects.
As I wrote above, that's not what monetarism (even on it's simpler form) says, nor a consequence of it. You can see some deviations in low inflation environment but it's not really Argentina's current situation.
Let's add other problems: the elastic question between money and prices is not evident. Neither is time lags in which can work or be neutral. So the question is the limit cases for monetarism which has some reason but some difficulty in explaining them: by which and it what moments rules work and in which it doesn't.
I find the time lag thing to be a red herring. You can observe empirically and not having a proper short/middle run model doesn't invalidate QTOM in the long run. While it may be that increasing interest rates or freezing MB is not effective, that's less a problem of the theory and more a problem of policy implementation. Conclusion: I find that the article doesn't truly get monetarism to begin with (see the points it makes about emission and money demand), neither how it's implemented in practice, nor seems to be aware of more modern theories that, while put money on the background, don't necessarily invalidate it (rational expectation ideas, and eventually New Keynesian stuff which addresses stuff like liquidity traps properly). There are proper criticisms to be made to Friedman old ideas but he still was a relevant man in his time and the economic community has moved on to new, better theories that have some debt to it. I feel most economic discussion about monetarism in Argentina is a strawman of mainstream economics or an attack on Austrians more than genuine points ("monetarism" is used as a shorthand for those who think inflation is a monetary phenomenon more than referring to Friedman and his disciples per se).
Which type of curren(t) do you want to see(cy)? An analysis of the intention behind bitcoin(s). Part 3
Part 1 Part 2 So I have been subbed to /bitcoin since it had less than two thousand subs but haven't posted there in years. I think I took a break from researching bitcoin to take a foray into the world of conspiracy around 2014 and only got back in to it around the beginning of 2017 but with a bit of sense of skepticism and cynicism about everything. I think I returned to /bitcoin around that time but there had been a rift that had emerged in the community between those that said that bitcoin was censoring any discussion around big blocks but then also just censorship in general. This lead to the formation of /btc which became the main spot for big blockers to gather to talk about protocol development. Following the fork of Bitcoin Cash and SegWit (BTC) in August 2017 the camps were further divided when the fence sitters were denied their SegWit2x compromise. Many from the fence sitters then deferred back to the incumbent bitcoin as citing muh network effect, liquidity, and hashpower while some who felt betrayed by the failure of getting S2X through went to support BCH for some attempt at on chain scaling rather than through pegged side chains or Lightning Network. Bitcoin cash initially went with a modest doubling of the blocksize to 2MB but implemented some other features like a new more rapidly adjusting difficulty algorithm to protect themselves against hashpower fluctuations from the majority chain. In about July of that year I had seen what I potentially thought was someone LARPing on /biz/ but screencapped, that segwit2x which was scheduled for november 2017 would be called off and then hashpower would switch to BCH causing congestion and chain death spiral on BTC and BCH would pump massively. I was partial to the idea as the game theory and incentives on a big block bitcoin should attract miners. About a month after SegWit2x was indeed called off while the BTC blockchain was hugely congested, BCH went through a violent pump reaching 0.5 BTC/BCH on a European exchange called Kraken while it also pumped ridiculously on American exchange coinbase. Shortly afterwards the market took a giant dump all over those people who bought the top and it has since retraced to roughly 30:1 or so now. After that pump though BCH kind of gained some bagholders I guess who started to learn the talking points presented by personalities like Roger Ver, Jihan Wu, Peter Rizun and Amaury Sechet. Craig S Wright by this time had been outed as Satoshi but had in 2016 publicly failed to convince the public with the cryptographic proof he provided. To which he later published the article I don't have the courage to prove I am the bitcoin creator. In essence this allowed many to disregard anything he offered to the crypto community though his company nChain was very much interested in providing the technical support to scale what he saw as the true implementation of bitcoin. Following debate around a set of planned protocol upgrades between a bitcoin node implementation by his company nChain and the developers of another client Bitcoin ABC (adjustable block cap), the two parties both dug their heels in and wouldn't compromise. As it became clear that a fork was imminent there was a lot of vitriol tossed out towards Wright, another big billionaire backer Calvin Ayre and other personalities like Roger Ver and Jihan Wu. Craig's credibility was disregarded because of his failure to provide convincing cryptographic proof but still people who wanted to pursue the protocol upgrades that nChain were planning (as it best followed their interpretation of the bitcoin white paper) pursued his variant, while others who followed the socia consensus deferred to the positions of their personalities like Wu, Ver, and Sechet but even developers from Ethereum and other protocols chimed in to convince everyone that CSW is a fraud. This was referred to as the hash war and was the first time that the bitcoin protocol had been contentiously hard forked. Hashpower is the CPU cycles you can commit to the Proof of Work function in bitcoin and the majority will generate the longest chain as they have the most proof of work. To win the contentious hard fork legitimately and make sure your chain will always be safe going forward you need to maintain your version of the blockchain with 51% of the hashpower on the network and force the other parties to continue to spend money on building a blockchain that is never going to be inserted in to the majority chain. As well as this you need to convince exchanges that you have the majority chain and have them feel safe to accept deposits and withdrawals so that they don't lose money in the chaos. This is how it would play out if both parties acted according to the rules of bitcoin and the Nakamoto Consensus. There was a lot of shit talking between the two parties on social media with Craig Wright making a number of claims such as "you split, we bankrupt you" "I don't care if there is no ability to move coins to an exchange for a year" and other such warnings not to engage in foul play.. To explain this aftermath is quite tedious so It might be better to defer to this video for the in depth analysis but basically Roger Ver had to rent hashpower that was supposed to be mining BTC from his mining farm bitcoin.com, Jihan Wu did the same from his Bitmain Mining Farm which was a violation of his fiduciary duty as the CEO of a company preparing for an IPO. In this video of a livestream during the hashwar where Andreas Brekken admits to basically colluding with exchange owners like Coinbase, Kraken (exchange Roger Ver invested in), Bitfinex and others to release a patched ABC client to the exchanges and introducing "checkpoints" in to the BCH blockchain (which he even says is arguably "centralisation") in order to prevent deep reorgs of the BCH blockchain. >"We knew we were going to win in 30 mins we had the victory because of these checkpoints that we released to a cartel of friendly businesses in a patch so then we just sat around drinking beers all day". By releasing a patched client that has code in it to prevent deep reorgs by having the client refer to a checkpoint from a block mined by someone who supported BCHABC if another group of hash power was to try to insert a new chain history, this cartel of exchanges and mining farm operators conspired in private to change the nature of the bitcoin protocol and Nakamoto Consensus. Since the fork there have been a number of other BCH clients that have come up that require funding and have their own ideas about what things to implement on the BCH chain. What began to emerge was actually not necessarily an intention of scaling bitcoin but rather to implement Schnorr signatures to obfuscate transactions and to date the ABC client still has a default blocksize of 2MB but advertised as 16MB. What this demonstrates for BCH is that through the collusion, the cartel can immediately get a favourable outcome from the developers to keep their businesses secure and from the personalities/developers to work on obfuscating records of transactions on the chain rather than scaling their protocol. After the SegWit fork, many from the BCH camp alleged that through the funding to Blockstream from AXA and groups that tied to the Bilderbergs, Blockstream would be beholden to the legacy banking and would be a spoke and hub centralised model, so naturally many of the "down with central banks anarcho capitalist types" had gathered in the BCH community. Through these sympathies it seems that people have been susceptible to being sold things like coin mixing and obfuscation with developers offering their opinions about how money needs to be anonymous to stop the evil government and central banks despite ideas like Mises’ Regression Theorem, which claims that in order for something to be money in the most proper sense, it must be traceable to an originally non-monetary barter commodity such as gold. What this suggests is that there is an underlying intent from the people that have mechanisms to exert their will upon the protocol of bitcoin and that if obfuscation is their first priority rather than working on creating a scalable platform, this demonstrates that they don't wish to actually be global money but more so something that makes it easier to move money that you don't want seen. Roger Ver has often expressed sentiments of injustice about the treatment of Silk Road found Ross Ulbricht and donated a large amount of money to a fund for his defence. I initially got in to bitcoin seeking out the Silk Road and though I only wanted to test it to buy small quantities of mdma, lsd, and mescaline back in 2011 there was all sorts of criminal activity on there like scam manuals, counterfeits, ID, Credit Card info, and other darknet markets like armoury were selling pretty crazy weapons. It has been alleged by Craig Wright that in his capacity as a digital forensics expert he was involved with tracing bitcoin that was used to fund the trafficking of 12-16 year olds on the silk road. There have been attempts at debunking such claims by saying that silk road was moderated for such stuff by Ulbricht and others, but one only has to take a look in to the premise of pizza gate to understand that there it may be possible to hide in plain site with certain code words for utilising the market services and escrow of websites like the silk road. The recent pedo bust from South Korea demonstrates the importance of being able to track bitcoin transactions and if the first thing BCH wanted to do after separating itself from Satoshi's Vision and running on developer and cartel agendas was to implement obfuscation methods, this type of criminal activity will only proliferate. Questions one must ask oneself then are things like why do they want this first? Are some of these developers, personalities and cartel businesses sitting on coins that they know are tarnished from the silk road and want to implement obfuscation practices so they can actually cash in some of the value they are unable to access? Merchants from the silk road 1 are still being caught even as recently as this year when they attempted to move coins that were known to have moved through the silk road. Chain analytics are only becoming more and more powerful and the records can never be changed under the original bitcoin protocol but with developer induced protocol changes like Schnorr signatures, and coinjoin it may be possible to start laundering these coins out in to circulation. I must admit with the cynicism I had towards government and law enforcement and my enjoying controlled substances occasionally I was sympathetic to Ross and donated to his legal fund back in the day and for many years claimed that I wouldn't pay my taxes when I wanted to cash out of bitcoin. I think many people in the space possess this same kind of mentality and subsequently can be preyed upon by people who wish to do much more in the obfuscation than dodge tax and party. Another interesting observation is that despite the fact that btc spun off as a result of censorship around big block scaling on bitcoin, that subreddit itself has engaged in plenty of censorship for basically anyone who wants to discuss the ideas presented by Dr Craig Wright on that sub. When I posted my part 2 of this series in there a week ago I was immediately met with intense negativity and ad hominems so as to discourage others from reading the submission and my post history was immediately throttled to 1 comment every 10 mins. This is not quite as bad as cryptocurrency where my post made it through the new queue to gather some upvotes and a discussion started but I was immediately banned from that sub for 7 days for reason "Content standards - you're making accusations based on no evidence just a dump of links that do nothing to justify your claims except maybe trustnodes link (which has posted fabricated information about this subreddit mods) and a Reddit post. Keep the conspiracy theories in /conspiracy" My post was also kept at zero in bitcoin and conspiracy so technically btc was the least censored besides C_S_T. In addition to the throttling I was also flagged by the u/BsvAlertBot which says whether or not a user has a questionable amount of activity in BSV subreddits and then a break down of your percentages. This was done in response to combat the "toxic trolls" of BSV but within bitcoincashSV there are many users that have migrated from what was originally supposed to be a uncensored subreddit to discuss bitcoin and many such as u/cryptacritic17 has have switched sides after having been made to essentially DOXX themselves in btc to prove that they aren't a toxic troll for raising criticisms of the way certain things are handled within that coin and development groups. Other prominent users such as u/jim-btc have been banned for impersonating another user which was in actual fact himself and he has uploaded evidence of him being in control of said account to the blockchain. Mod Log, Mod Damage Control, Mod Narrative BTFO. Interestingly in the comments on the picture uploaded to the blockchain you can see the spin to call him an SV shill when in actual fact he is just an OG bitcoiner that wanted bitcoin to scale as per the whitepaper. What is essentially going on in the Bitcoin space is that there is a battle of the protocols and a battle for social consensus. The incumbent BTC has majority of the attention and awareness as it is being backed by legacy banking and finance with In-Q-Tel and AXA funding blockstream as well as Epstein associates and MIT, but in the power vaccum that presented itself as to who would steward the big block variant, a posse of cryptoanarchists have gained control of the social media forums and attempted to exert their will upon what should essentially be a Set In Stone Protocol to create something that facilitates their economic activity (such as selling explosives online)) while attempting to leverage their position as moderators who control the social forum to spin their actions as something different (note memorydealers is Roger Ver). For all his tears for the children killed in wars, it seems that what cryptoanarchists such as u/memorydealers want is to delist/shut down governments and they will go to any efforts such as censorship to make sure that it is their implementation of bitcoin that will do that. Are we really going to have a better world with people easier able to hide transactions/launder money? Because of this power vacuum there also exists a number of different development groups but what is emerging now is that they are struggling for money to fund their development. The main engineering is done by self professed benevolent dictator Amaury Sechet (deadalnix) who in leaked telegram screen caps appears to be losing it as funding for development has dried up and money raised in an anarchist fashion wasn't compliant with laws around fundraising sources and FVNI (development society that manages BCH development and these donations) is run by known scammer David R Allen. David was founder of 2014 Israeli ICO Getgems (GEMZ) that scammed investors out of more than 2500 Bitcoins. The SV supported sky-lark who released this information has since deleted all their accounts but other users have claimed that sky-lark was sent personal details about themselves and pictures of their loved ones and subsequently deleted all their social media accounts afterwards. There are other shifty behaviours like hiring Japanese influencers to shill their coin, recruiting a Hayden Otto that up until 2018 was shilling Pascal Coin to become a major ambassador for BCH in the Australian city of Townsville. Townsville was claimed to be BCH city hosting a BCH conference there and claiming loads of adoption, but at the conference itself their idea of demonstrating adoption was handing a Point of Sale device to the bar to accept bitcoin payments but Otto actually just putting his credit card behind the bar to settle and he would keep the BCH that everyone paid. In the lead up to the conference the second top moderator of btc was added to the moderators of townsville to shill their coin but has ended up with the townsville subreddit wanting to ban all bitcoin talk from the subreddit. Many of the BCH developers are now infighting as funding dries up and they find themselves floundering with no vision of how to achieve scale or get actual real world adoption. Amaury has recently accused Peter Rizun of propagandising, told multiple users in the telegram to fuck off and from all accounts appears to be a malignant narcissist incapable of maintaining any kind of healthy relationship with people he is supposed to be working with. Peter Rizun has begun lurking in bitcoincashSV and recognising some of the ideas coming from BSV as having merit while Roger has started to distance himself from the creation of BCH. Interestingly at a point early in the BCH history Roger believed Dr Craig Wright was Satoshi, but once CSW wouldn't go along with their planned road map and revealed the fact he had patents on blockchain technology and wanted to go down a path that worked with Law, Roger retracted that statement and said he was tricked by Craig. He joined in on the faketoshi campaign and has been attempted to be sued by Dr Wright for libel in the UK to which Roger refused to engage citing grounds of jurisdiction. Ironically this avoidance of Roger to meet Dr Wright in court to defend his claims can be seen as the very argument against justice being served by private courts under an anarchocapitalist paradigm with essentially someone with resources simply being able to either flee a private court's jurisdiction or engage a team of lawyers that can bury any chances of an everyday person being able to get justice. There is much more going on with the BCH drama that can be explained in a single post but it is clear that some of the major personalities in the project are very much interested in having their ideals projected on to the technical implementation of the bitcoin protocol and have no qualms spouting rhetoric around the anti-censorship qualities of bitcoin/BCH while at the same time employing significant censorship on their social media forums to control what people are exposed to and getting rid of anyone who challenges their vision. I posit that were this coin to become a success, these "benevolent dictators" as they put it would love their new found positions of wealth/dominance yet if their behaviour to get there is anything to go by, would demonstrate the same power tripping practices of censorship, weasel acts, misleading people about adoption statistics and curating of the narrative. When the hashrate from Rogers bitcoin.com minging operation on BCH dropped dramatically and a lot of empty blocks were being mined, his employer and 2IC moderator u/BitcoinXio (who stepped in to replace roger as CEO) was in the sub informing everyone it was simply variance that was the reason when only a few days later it was revealed that they had reduced their hash power significantly. This is not appropriate behaviour for one of the primary enterprises engaged in stewarding BCH and encouraging adoption nor is the inability to be accountable for such dishonest practices as well. It seems bitcoin.com treats btc as their own personal spam page where Roger can ask for donations despite it being against the sub rules and spin/ban any challenge to the narrative they seek to create. Let's see how the censorship goes as I post this around a few of the same places as the last piece. Stay tuned for the next write up where I take a deep dive in to the coin that everyone doesn't want you to know about.
IoT is a whole ecosystem that contains intelligent devices equipped with sensors (sensors) that provide remote control, storage, transmission and security of data. The Internet of Things (IoT) is an innovative solution in various areas such as healthcare, insurance, labor protection, logistics, ecology, etc. To unleash the full potential of using IoT devices, it is necessary to solve many problems related to standards, security, architecture, ecosystem construction, channels and device connection protocols. Today in the world, large organizations such as NIST, IEEE, ISO / IEC, and others make enormous efforts in addressing the issues of standardization, security, and the architecture of developed devices. Analysis of recent scientific research in the field of solving information security issues and data privacy of IoT devices showed positive results, but these methods and approaches are based on traditional methods of network security. The development and application of security mechanisms for IoT devices is a complex and heterogeneous task. In this regard, ensuring information security and the protection of sensitive data, as well as the availability of IoT devices, is the main purpose of writing this article. Given the above, many questions arise related to the security status of IoT devices, namely: What are the current standards and protocols for IoT? What are the requirements for ensuring information security of IoT devices? What security mechanisms do IoT devices have? What methods of testing IoT devices exist? Manufacturers and developers of IoT devices do not pay enough attention to security issues. With the development of cyber-attacks, attack vectors are becoming more sophisticated and aimed at several infrastructure elements at the same time. IoT infrastructure typically includes millions of connected objects and devices that store and share confidential information. Scenarios of theft and fraud, such as hacking and falsifying personal data, pose a serious threat to such IoT devices. Most IoT devices use the public Internet to exchange data, which makes them vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Modern approaches to information security often offer solutions to individual problems, when multi-level approaches offer increased resistance to cyber-attacks. Challenges of testing IoT devices To a request to name essential items, many would answer: food, a roof over your head, clothes … With one caveat: this was the case in the last century. Since then, the species Homo Sapiens has accumulated needs. We need automatic sensors to control the lighting, not just switches, for smart systems to monitor health and car traffic. The list goes on … In general, we can make life easier and better. Let’s try to figure out how all this Internet of things works before moving on to testing. IoT testing Content What is the Internet of Things (IoT)? Examples of IoT devices # 1) Wearable technology: # 2) Infrastructure and development # 3) Health Technologies that are present in IoT IoT Testing # 1) Usability: # 2) IoT Security: # 3) Network features: # 4) Efficiency: # 5) Compatibility testing: # 6) Pilot testing: # 7) Check for compliance: # 8) Testing updates: IoT testing challenges # 1) Hard / soft # 2) Device Interaction Model # 3) Testing data coming in real time # 4) UI # 5) Network Availability IoT Testing Tools # 1) Software: # 2) Hard: Total What is the Internet of Things (IoT)? The Internet of things (or IoT) is a network that combines many objects: vehicles, home automation, medical equipment, microchips, etc. All these constituent elements accumulate and transmit data. Through this technology, the user controls the devices remotely.
Examples of IoT devices
# 1) Wearable technology: Fitbit Fitness Bracelets and Apple Watch smart watches sync seamlessly with other mobile devices.
IoT – watches and bracelets
Itís easier to collect health information: heart rate, body activity during sleep, etc. # 2) Infrastructure and development The CitySense app analyzes lighting data online and turns lights on and off automatically. There are applications that control traffic lights or report on the availability of parking lots. # 3) Health Some health monitoring systems are used in hospitals. The basis of their work is indicative data. These services control the dosage of drugs at different times of the day. For example, the UroSense application monitors the level of fluid in the body and, if necessary, increases this level. And doctors will learn about patient information wirelessly. Technologies that are present in IoT RFID (Radio Frequency Identification), EPC (Electronic Product Code) NFC (ìNear Field Communicationî) provides two-way communication between devices. This technology is present in smartphones and is used for contactless transactions. Bluetooth It is widely used in situations where near-field communication is sufficient. Most often present in wearable devices. Z-Wave. Low frequency RF technology. Most often used for home automation, lighting control, etc. WiFi. The most popular network for IoT (file, data and message transfer). IoT Testing Consider an example : a medical system that monitors health status, heart rate, fluid content, and sends reports to healthcare providers. Data is displayed in the system; archives available. And doctors are already deciding whether to take medication for the patient remotely. IoT architecture There are several approaches for testing the IoT architecture. # 1) Usability: It is necessary to provide usability testing of each device. A medical device that monitors your health should be portable. Sufficiently thought out equipment is needed that would send not only notifications, but also error messages, warnings, etc. The system must have an option that captures events, so that the end user understands. If this is not possible, event information is stored in the database. The ability to process data and exchange tasks between devices is carefully checked. # 2) IoT Security: Data is at the heart of all connected devices. Therefore, unauthorized access during data transfer is not ruled out. From the point of view of software testing, it is necessary to check how secure / encrypted the data is. If there is a UI, you need to check if it is password protected. # 3) Network features: Network connectivity and IoT functionality are critical. After all, we are talking about a system that is used for health purposes. Two main aspects are tested: The presence of a network , the possibility of data transfer (whether jobs are transferred from one device to another without any hitch). The scenario when there is no connection . Regardless of the level of reliability of the system, it is likely that the status of the system will be ìofflineî. If the network is unavailable, employees of the hospital or other organization need to know about it (notifications). Thus, they will be able to monitor the condition of the patient themselves, and not wait for the system to work. On the other hand, in such systems there is usually a mechanism that saves data if the system is offline. That is, data loss is eliminated. # 4) Efficiency: It is necessary to take into account the extent to which the healthcare solution is applicable in specific conditions. In testing, from 2 to 10 patients participate, data is transmitted to 10-20 devices. If the entire hospital is connected to the network, this is already 180-200 patients. That is, there will be more actual data than test data. In addition, it is necessary to test the utility for monitoring the system: current load, power consumption, temperature, etc. # 5) Compatibility testing: This item is always present in the plan for testing the IoT system. The compatibility of different versions of operating systems, browser types and their respective versions, devices of different generations, communication modes [for example, Bluetooth 2.0, 3.0] is extremely important for IoT. # 6) Pilot testing: Pilot testing is a mandatory point of the test plan. Only tests in the laboratory will allow us to conclude that the system is functional. In pilot testing, the number of users is limited. They make manipulations with the application and express their opinion. These comments turn out to be very helpful, they make a reliable application. # 7) Check for compliance: The system, which monitors the state of health, undergoes many compliance checks. It also happens that a software product passes all stages of testing, but fails the final test for compliance [testing is carried out by the regulatory body]. It is more advisable to check for compliance with norms and standards before starting the development cycle. # 8) Testing updates: IoT is a combination of many protocols, devices, operating systems, firmware, hardware, network layers, etc. When an update occurs – be it a system or something else of the above – rigorous regression testing is required. The overall strategy is being amended to avoid the difficulties associated with the upgrade.
IoT testing challengesIoT testing
# 1) Hard / soft IoT is an architecture in which software and hardware components are closely intertwined. Not only software is important, but also hard: sensors, gateways, etc. Functional testing alone will not be enough to certify the system. All components are interdependent. IoT is much more complicated than simpler systems [only software or only hard]. # 2) Device Interaction Model Components of the network must interact in real time or close to real. All this becomes a single whole – hence the additional difficulties associated with IoT (security, backward compatibility and updates). # 3) Testing data coming in real time Obtaining this data is extremely difficult. The matter is complicated by the fact that the system, as in the described case, may relate to the health sector. # 4) UI An IoT network usually consists of different devices that are controlled by different platforms [iOS, Android, Windows, linux]. Testing is possible only on some devices, since testing on all possible devices is almost impossible. # 5) Network Availability Network connectivity plays an important role in IoT. The data rate is increasing. IoT architecture should be tested under various connection conditions, at different speeds. Virtual network emulators in most cases are used to diversify network load, connectivity, stability, and other elements of load testing . But the evidence is always new scenarios, and the testing team does not know where the difficulties will arise in the future.
IoT Testing ToolsIoT and software
There are many tools that are used in testing IoT systems. They are classified depending on the purpose: # 1) Software: Wireshark : An open source tool. Used to monitor traffic in the interface, source / given host address, etc. Tcpdump : This tool does a similar job. The utility does not have a GUI, its interface is the command line. It enables the user to flash TCP / IP and other packets that are transmitted over the network. # 2) Hard: JTAG Dongle: A tool similar to debuggers in PC applications. Allows you to find defects in the code of the target platform and shows the changes step by step. Digital Storage Oscilloscope : checks various events using time stamps, power outages, signal integrity. Software Defined Radio : emulates a transmitter and receiver for various wireless gateways. IoT is an emerging market and many opportunities. In the foreseeable future, the Internet of things will become one of the main areas of work for tester teams. Network devices, smart gadget applications, communication modules – all this plays an important role in the study and evaluation of various services. Total The approach to testing IoT may vary depending on the specific system / architecture. Itís difficult to test IoT, but at the same time itís an interesting job, since testers have a good place to swing – there are many devices, protocols and operating systems. PS You should try out the TAAS format (“tests from the user’s point of view”), and not just fulfill the formal requirements. ————— Smart watches, baby-sitters, wireless gadgets and devices such as, for example, a portable radio station have long been part of everyday life. Hackers have already proven that many of these attacks on IoT are possible. Many people in general first learned about IoT security threats when they heard about the Mirai botnet in September 2016. According to some estimates, Mirai infected about 2.5 million IoT devices, including printers, routers and cameras connected to the Internet. The botnetís creators used it to launch distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, including an attack on the KrebsonSecurity cybersecurity blog. In fact, the attackers used all devices infected with Mirai to try to connect to the target site at the same time, in the hope of suppressing the servers and preventing access to the site. Since Mirai was first published on the news, attackers launched other botnet attacks on IoT, including Reaper and Hajime. Experts say that such attacks are most likely in the future. The Internet of Things (IoT) can bring many advantages to modern life, but it also has one huge drawback: security threats. In its 2018 IOT forecasts, Forroter Research notes: ìSecurity threats are a major concern for companies deploying IoT solutions – in fact, this is the main task of organizations looking to deploy IoT solutions. However, most firms do not regularly prevent IoT-specific security threats, and business pressure suppresses technical security issues. î IoT security risks can be even more significant on the consumer side, where people are often unaware of potential threats and what they should do to avoid threats. A 2017 IoT security survey sponsored by Gemalto Security Provider found that only 14 percent of consumers surveyed consider themselves IoT-aware. This number is particularly noteworthy because 54 percent of the respondents owned an average of four IoT devices. And these IoT security threats are not just theoretical. Hackers and cybercriminals have already found ways to compromise many IoT devices and networks, and experts say that successful attacks are likely to increase. Forrester predicted: “In 2018, we will see more attacks related to IoT … except that they will increase in scale and loss.” What types of IoT security threats will enterprises and consumers face in 2018? Based on historical precedent, here are ten of the most likely types of attacks.
Botnets and DDoS attacks
Remote recording The possibility that attackers can hack IoT devices and record owners without their knowledge is not revealed as a result of the work of hackers, but as a result of the work of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Documents released by WikiLeaks implied that the spy agency knew about dozens of zero-day exploits for IoT devices, but did not disclose errors, because they hoped to use vulnerabilities to secretly record conversations that would reveal the actions of alleged opponents of America. Documents pointed to vulnerabilities in smart TVs, as well as on Android and iOS smartphones. The obvious consequence is that criminals can also exploit these vulnerabilities for their vile purposes.
Spam In January 2014, one of the first known attacks using IoT devices used more than 100,000 Internet-connected devices, including televisions, routers, and at least one smart refrigerator to send 300,000 spam emails per day.
The attackers sent no more than 10 messages from each device, which makes it very difficult to block or determine the location of the incident. This first attack was not far from the last. IoT spam attacks continued in the fall with the Linux.ProxyM IoT botnet.
APTs In recent years, advanced persistent threats (APTs) have become a serious concern for security professionals.
APTs are carried out by funded and widespread attackers such as nation states or corporations that launch complex cyberattacks that are difficult to prevent or mitigate. For example, the Stuxnet worm, which destroyed Iranian nuclear centrifuges and hacking Sony Pictures 2014, was attributed to nation states. Because the critical infrastructure is connected to the Internet, many experts warn that APTs may launch a power-oriented IoT attack, industrial control systems, or other systems connected to the Internet. Some even warn that terrorists could launch an attack on iOT, which could harm the global economy.
Ransomware Ransomware has become too common on home PCs and corporate networks. Now experts say that it is only a matter of time before the attackers begin to block smart devices. Security researchers have already demonstrated the ability to install ransomware on smart thermostats. For example, they can raise the temperature to 95 degrees and refuse to return it to its normal state until the owner agrees to pay a ransom in Bitcoins. They can also launch similar attacks on garage doors, vehicles, or even appliances. How much would you pay to unlock your smart coffee pot first thing in the morning?
Data theft Obtaining important data, such as customer names, credit card numbers, social security numbers, and other personal information, is still one of the main goals of cyber attacks.
IoT devices represent a whole new vector of attack for criminals looking for ways to invade corporate or home networks. For example, if an improperly configured device or IoT sensor is connected to corporate networks, this can give attackers a new way to enter the network and potentially find the valuable data that they need.
Home theft As smart locks and smart garage doors become more commonplace, it is also more likely that cybercriminals can become real thieves.
Home systems that are not properly protected can be vulnerable to criminals with sophisticated tools and software. Security researchers are unlikely to have shown that itís quite easy to break into a house through smart locks from several different manufacturers, and smart garage doors do not seem to be much safer.
Communication with children One of the most disturbing IoT security stories came from children.
One couple discovered that the stranger not only used his monitor for children to spy on their three-year-old son, this stranger also spoke with his child through the device. Mother heard an unknown voice: ìWake up, boy, dad is looking for you,î and the child said that he was scared because at night someone was talking to him on an electronic device. As more and more children’s gadgets and toys connect to the Internet, it seems likely that these frightening scenarios may become more common.
Remote control of a vehicle As vehicles become smarter and more accessible on the Internet, they also become vulnerable to attack.
Hackers have shown that they can take control of a jeep, maximize air conditioning, change the radio station, start the wipers, and ultimately slow down the car. The news led to the recall of 1.4 million cars, but whitehat researchers, following the original exploit, said they discovered additional vulnerabilities that were not fixed by the Chrysler patch applied to the recalled cars. Although experts say the automotive industry is doing a great job of ensuring vehicle safety, it is almost certain that attackers will find new vulnerabilities in such smart cars.
Personal attacks Sometimes IoT covers more than just devices – it can also include people who have connected medical devices implanted in their bodies.
An episode of the television series Homeland attempted a murder aimed at an implanted medical device, and former vice president Dick Cheney was so worried about this scenario that he turned off the wireless capabilities on his implanted defibrillator. This kind of attack has not yet happened in real life, but it remains possible, as many medical devices become part of the IoT.
The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer
By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast. Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos. I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back. Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate! Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous. BACKGROUND As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments. I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC! On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:
As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences. With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell? FUNDAMENTALS Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel. The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages. SECURITY The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed. At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied). This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m. This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000. Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day. Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage. When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin. These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way. With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!
SPECULATION For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers. Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good. A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect. Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand. There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg) (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg) And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage. According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not. For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin. Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you. In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away. RETAIL There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017. Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin. If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts. What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available. After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys. To do so, I highly recommendBitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware). WALL STREET There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017. LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization. The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures. The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon. By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable. This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets. THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg) Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset? BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit). But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk. Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B. And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography! This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen. Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity. To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png) TRANSACTIONS Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve. On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017. Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls? As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again. Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move. There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png) What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network. The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee. The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it. I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA. DEVELOPERS Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want. The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is. However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses. Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg) SETTLEMENT CURRENCY There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet. Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid. PRICE There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth. Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand. Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics! (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg) On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030. On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus." On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000". Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition. I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC. Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny. Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State. Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png) Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market. The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day. So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png) Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction. We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose? As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world. CONCLUSION Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017. The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled. The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon. While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright. Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do! But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here. Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts. Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go? After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it! What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
Unintended consequence of a hard fork---difficulty oscillations
We are observing the first phase of an unintended side effect of the BCH hard fork. Because bitcoin and BCH use the same proof of work algorithm, miners can jump from one chain to the other, wherever mining is more profitable. Assuming that miners could jump effortlessly and instantly (which is, luckily, not the case just yet), and assuming that all miners always seek maximum profit, all should now be mining BCH and the bitcoin chain would come to a screeching halt with no blocks whatsoever. Since BCH would then have a very high block frequency, the difficulty adjustment algorithm would soon, within a few days, increase the difficulty fourfold (the limit of what the algorithm does). All miners would jump back to bitcoin, and bitcoin would work normally for a while, until its difficulty would presumably rise a bit while BCH would stand still without a single block. The question now is whether the bitcoin difficulty rise suffices to chase all miners back into BCH mining or not, which also depends on the two coins' prices. Both chains have certain mitigating advantages. Bitcoin has the advantage that too few blocks would lead to very high fees, which would eventually lure miners back into an unpleasant, but less catastrophic equilibrium between high fees and miner's profitability estimates. BCH, on the other hand, has big blocks, so situations like one block per hour are unpleasant, but also not catastrophic. No block at all would, of course, be catastrophic for either chain. Fortunately the assumption I made initially will probably not be true. Some miners will stick to one chain for ideological reasons, out of conviction about long-term success, or because somebody bribes them, presumably also for ideological reasons. In addition most miners are not yet able to jump from one chain to the other easily and instantly for technical reasons. They would experience service interruptions, extra work, perhaps bugs. I am finding myself completely unable to predict what will actually happen, which is bad enough in itself. Please join in, anybody, who knows more. After yet another hard fork in a few months we may have the equivalent of an unstable three-body problem, like the one with celestial bodies, where the only safe prediction will be that nobody can predict the outcome. Bitcoin and its derivatives have not been designed for this situation. I bet Satoshi Nakamoto never thought about what would happen to the difficulty after such a hard fork, otherwise he would presumably have tried to design a solution into the difficulty adjustment. Even this intellectual giant could not foresee everything. What can we learn from this? That hard forks without a very clear separation, including different proof-of-work algorithms, are highly risky and dangerous and that the people who create them without understanding fully what they are doing may inadvertently damage or destroy both bitcoin and their own immature fork creations at the same time. Somehow this reminds me of Frankenstein's monster, born of good, but naive intentions, and sadly unable to fit in. Bitcoin Crash?
Thank you for being a part of the ColossusXT Reddit AMA! Below we will summarize the questions and answers. The team responded to 78 questions! If you question was not included, it may have been answered in a previous question. The ColossusXT team will do a Reddit AMA at the end of every quarter. The winner of the Q2 AMA Contest is: Shenbatu Q: Why does your blockchain exist and what makes it unique? A: ColossusXT exists to provide an energy efficient method of supercomputing. ColossusXT is unique in many ways. Some coins have 1 layer of privacy. ColossusXT and the Colossus Grid will utilize 2 layers of privacy through Obfuscation Zerocoin Protocol, and I2P and these will protect users of the Colossus Grid as they utilize grid resources. There are also Masternodes and Proof of Stake which both can contribute to reducing 51% attacks, along with instant transactions and zero-fee transactions. This protection is paramount as ColossusXT evolves into the Colossus Grid. Grid Computing will have a pivotal role throughout the world, and what this means is that users will begin to experience the Internet as a seamless computational universe. Software applications, databases, sensors, video and audio streams-all will be reborn as services that live in cyberspace, assembling and reassembling themselves on the fly to meet the tasks at hand. Once plugged into the grid, a desktop machine will draw computational horsepower from all the other computers on the grid. Q: What is the Colossus Grid? A: ColossusXT is an anonymous blockchain through obfuscation, Zerocoin Protocol, along with utilization of I2P. These features will protect end user privacy as ColossusXT evolves into the Colossus Grid. The Colossus Grid will connect devices in a peer-to-peer network enabling users and applications to rent the cycles and storage of other users’ machines. This marketplace of computing power and storage will exclusively run on COLX currency. These resources will be used to complete tasks requiring any amount of computation time and capacity, or allow end users to store data anonymously across the COLX decentralized network. Today, such resources are supplied by entities such as centralized cloud providers which are constrained by closed networks, proprietary payment systems, and hard-coded provisioning operations. Any user ranging from a single PC owner to a large data center can share resources through Colossus Grid and get paid in COLX for their contributions. Renters of computing power or storage space, on the other hand, may do so at low prices compared to the usual market prices because they are only using resources that already exist. Q: When will zerocoin be fully integrated? A: Beta has been released for community testing on Test-Net. As soon as all the developers consider the code ready for Main-Net, it will be released. Testing of the code on a larger test network network will ensure a smooth transition. Q: Is the end goal for the Colossus Grid to act as a decentralized cloud service, a resource pool for COLX users, or something else? A: Colossus Grid will act as a grid computing resource pool for any user running a COLX node. How and why we apply the grid to solve world problems will be an ever evolving story. Q: What do you think the marketing role in colx.? When ll be the inwallet shared nodes available...i know its been stated in roadmap but as u dont follow roadmap and offer everything in advance...i hope shared MN's to be avilable soon. A: The ColossusXT (COLX) roadmap is a fluid design philosophy. As the project evolves, and our community grows. Our goal is to deliver a working product to the market while at the same time adding useful features for the community to thrive on, perhaps the Colossus Grid and Shared Masternodes will be available both by the end of Q4 2018. Q: When will your github be open to the public? A: The GitHub has been open to the public for a few months now. You can view the GitHub here: https://github.com/ColossusCoinXT The latest commits here: https://github.com/ColossusCoinXT/ColossusCoinXT/commits/master Q: Why should I use COLX instead of Monero? A: ColossusXT offers Proof of Stake and Masternodes both which contribute layers in protection from 51% attacks often attributed with Proof of Work consensus, and in being Proof of Work(Monero) ColossusXT is environmentally friendly compared to Proof of Work (Monero). You can generate passive income from Proof of Stake, and Masternodes. Along with helping secure the network.What really sets ColossusXT apart from Monero, and many other privacy projects being worked on right now, is the Colossus Grid. Once plugged into the Colossus Grid, a desktop machine will draw computational horsepower from all the other computers on the grid. Blockchain, was built on the core value of decentralization and ColossusXT adhere to these standards with end-user privacy in mind in the technology sector. Q: With so many coins out with little to no purpose let alone a definitive use case, how will COLX distinguish itself from the crowd? A: You are right, there are thousands of other coins. Many have no purpose, and we will see others “pumping” from day to day. It is the nature of markets, and crypto as groups move from coin to coin to make a quick profit. As blockchain regulations and information is made more easily digestible projects like ColossusXT will rise. Our goal is to produce a quality product that will be used globally to solve technical problems, in doing so grid computing on the ColossusXT network could create markets of its own within utilizing Super-computing resources. ColossusXT is more than just a currency, and our steadfast approach to producing technical accomplishments will not go unnoticed. Q: Tell the crowd something about the I2P integration plan in the roadmap? 🙂 A: ColossusXT will be moving up the I2P network layer in the roadmap to meet a quicker development pace of the Colossus Grid. The I2P layer will serve as an abstraction layer further obfuscating the users of ColossusXT (COLX) nodes. Abstraction layer allows two parties to communicate in an anonymous manner. This network is optimised for anonymous file-sharing. Q: What kind of protocols, if any, are being considered to prevent or punish misuse of Colossus Grid resources by bad actors, such as participation in a botnet/denial of service attack or the storage of stolen information across the Grid? A: What defines bad actors? ColossusXT plans on marketing to governments and cyber security companies globally. Entities and individuals who will certainly want their privacy protected. There is a grey area between good and bad, and that is something we can certainly explore as a community. Did you have any ideas to contribute to this evolving variable?What we mean when we say marketing towards security companies and governments is being utilized for some of the projects and innovating new ways of grid computing. Security: https://wiki.ncsa.illinois.edu/display/cybersec/Projects+and+Software Governments: https://www.techwalla.com/articles/what-are-the-uses-of-a-supercomputer Q: The Colossus Grid is well defined but I don't feel easily digestible. Has their been any talk of developing an easier to understand marketing plan to help broaden the investoadoptor base? A: As we get closer to the release of the Colossus Grid marketing increase for the Colossus Grid. It will have a user friendly UI, and we will provide Guides and FAQ’s with the release that any user intending to share computing power will be able to comprehend. Q: Can you compare CollossusXT and Golem? A: Yes. The Colosssus Grid is similar to other grid computing projects. The difference is that ColossusXT is on it’s own blockchain, and does not rely on the speed or congestion of a 3rd party blockchain. The Colossus Grid has a privacy focus and will market to companies, and individuals who would like to be more discreet when buying or selling resources by offering multiple levels of privacy protections. Q: How do you guys want to achieve to be one of the leaders as a privacy coin? A: Being a privacy coin leader is not our end game. Privacy features are just a small portion of our framework. The Colossus Grid will include privacy features, but a decentralized Supercomputer is what will set us apart and we intend to be leading this industry in the coming years as our vision, and development continue to grow and scale with technology. Q: With multiple coins within this space, data storage and privacy, how do you plan to differentiate COLX from the rest? Any further partnerships planned? A: The Colossus Grid will differentiate ColossusXT from coins within the privacy space. The ColossusXT blockchain will differentiate us from the DATA storage space. Combining these two features with the ability to buy and sell computing power to complete different computational tasks through a decentralized marketplace. We intend to involve more businesses and individuals within the community and will invite many companies to join in connecting the grid to utilize shared resources and reduce energy waste globally when the BETA is available. Q: Has colossus grid had the best come up out of all crypto coins? A: Possibly. ColossusXT will continue to “come up” as we approach the launch of the Colossus Grid network. Q: How far have Colossus gone in the ATM integration A: ColossusXT intends to and will play an important role in the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies. We already have an ongoing partnership with PolisPay which will enable use of COLX via master debit cards. Along with this established relationship, ColossusXT team is in touch with possible companies to use colx widely where these can only be disclosed upon mutual agreement. Q: How does COLX intend to disrupt the computing industry through Grid Computing? A: Using the Colossus Grid on the ColossusXT blockchain, strengthens the network. Computers sit idly by for huge portions of the day. Connecting to the Colossus Grid and contributing those idle resources can make use of all the computing power going to waste, and assist in advancing multiple technology sectors and solving issues. Reducing costs, waste, and increased speed in technology sectors such as scientific research, machine learning, cyber security, and making it possible for anyone with a desktop PC to contribute resources to the Colossus Grid and earn passive income. Q: What kind of partnerships do you have planned and can you share any of them? :) A: The ColossusXT team will announce partnerships when they are available. It’s important to finalize all information and create strong avenues of communication between partners ColossusXT works with in the future. We are currently speaking with many different exchanges, merchants, and discussing options within our technology sector for utilizing the Colossus Grid. Q: Will shared Masternodes be offered by the COLX team? Or will there be any partnerships with something like StakingLab, StakeUnited, or SimplePosPool? StakingLab allows investors of any size to join their shared Masternodes, so any investor of any size can join. Is this a possibility in the future? A: ColossusXT has already partnered with StakingLab. We also plan to implement shared Masternodes in the desktop wallet. Q: How innovative is the Colossus Grid in the privacy coin space? A: Most privacy coins are focused on being just a currency / form of payment. No other project is attempting to do what we are doing with a focus on user privacy. Q: Hey guys do you think to integrated with some other plataforms like Bancor? I would like it! A: ColossusXT is in touch with many exchange platforms, however, due to non disclosure agreements details cannot be shared until it is mutually decided with the partners. We will always be looking for new platforms to spread the use of colx in different parts of the world and crypto space. Q: What is the reward system for the master node owners? A: From block 388.800 onwards, block reward is 1200 colx and this is split based on masternode ownestaker ratio. This split is based on see-saw algorithm. With an increasing number of masternodes the see-saw algorithm disincentivizes the establishment of even more masternodes because it lowers their profitability. To be precise, as soon as more than 41.5% of the total COLX coin supply is locked in masternodes, more than 50% of the block reward will be distributed to regular staking nodes. As long as the amount of locked collateral funds is below the threshold of 41.5%, the see-saw algorithm ensure that running a masternode is financially more attractive than running a simple staking node, to compensate for the additional effort that a masternode requires in comparison to a simple staking node.Please refer to our whitepaper for more information. Q: What other marketplaces has the COLX team been in contact with? Thanks guys! Love the coin and staff A: ColossusXT gets in touch for different platforms based on community request and also based on partnership requests received upon ColossusXT business team’s mutual agreement. Unfortunately, these possibilities cannot be shared until they are mutually agreed between the partners and ColossusXT team due to non disclosure agreements. Q:What do you think about the new rules that will soon govern crypto interactions in the EU?they are against anonymous payments A: Blockchain technology is just now starting to become clear to different governments. ColossusXT's privacy features protect the end-user from oversharing personal information. As you are probably aware from the multiple emails you've received recently from many websites. Privacy policies are always being updated and expanded upon. The use of privacy features with utility coins like ColossusXT should be a regular norm throughout blockchain. This movement is part is about decentralization as much as it is about improving technology. While this news may have a role to play. I don't think it is THE role that will continuously be played as blockchain technology is implemented throughout the world. Q: Any hints on the next big feature implementation you guys are working on? According to road map - really excited to hear more about the Shared MN and the scale of the marketplace! A: Current work is focused on the privacy layer of Colossus Grid and completing the updated wallet interface. Q: Why choose COLX, or should I say why should we believe in COLX becoming what you promise in the roadmap. What are you different from all the other privacy coins with block chain establishment already in effect? A: ColossusXT is an environmentally friendly Proof of Stake, with Masternode technology that provide dual layers of protection from 51% attacks. It includes privacy features that protect the user while the utilize resources from the Colossus Grid. Some of the previous questions within this AMA may also answer this question. Q: What tradeoffs do you have using the Colossus Grid versus the more typical distribution? A: The advantage of supercomputers is that since data can move between processors rapidly, all of the processors can work together on the same tasks. Supercomputers are suited for highly-complex, real-time applications and simulations. However, supercomputers are very expensive to build and maintain, as they consist of a large array of top-of-the-line processors, fast memory, custom hardware, and expensive cooling systems. They also do not scale well, since their complexity makes it difficult to easily add more processors to such a precisely designed and finely tuned system.By contrast, the advantage of distributed systems (Like Colossus Grid) is that relative to supercomputers they are much less expensive. Many distributed systems make use of cheap, off-the-shelf computers for processors and memory, which only require minimal cooling costs. In addition, they are simpler to scale, as adding an additional processor to the system often consists of little more than connecting it to the network. However, unlike supercomputers, which send data short distances via sophisticated and highly optimized connections, distributed systems must move data from processor to processor over slower networks making them unsuitable for many real-time applications. Q: Why should I choose Colossus instead of another 100,000 altcoins? A: Many of these alt-coins are all very different projects. ColossusXT is the only Grid computing project with a focus on user privacy. We have instant transactions, and zero-fee transactions and ColossusXT is one of the very few coins to offer live support. Check out our Whitepaper! Q: Will there be an option (in the future) to choose between an anonymous or public transaction? A: Zerocoin is an evolution of the current coin mixing feature. Both allow an individual to decide how they would like to send their transactions. Q: What exchange has highest volume for ColossusXT, and are there any plans for top exchanges soon ? A: Currently Cryptopia carries the majority of ColossusXT volume. We are speaking with many different exchanges, and preparing requested documentation for different exchanges. ColossusXT intends to be traded on every major exchange globally. Q: What is the TPS speed that colx blockchain achieves? A: ColossusXT achieves between 65-67 TPS depending on network conditions currently. Q: Plans on expanding the dev team? A: As development funds allow it, the team will be expanded. Development costs are high for a unique product like ColossusXT, and a good majority of our budget is allocated to it. Q: Can you explain what is and what are the full porpose of the COLOSSUSXT GRID PROJECT ? A: Colossus Grid is explained in the whitepaper. The uses for grid computing and storage are vast, and we are only starting to scratch the surface on what this type of computing power can do. There is also a description within the formatting context within the AMA of the Colossus Grid. Q: Is there mobile wallet for Android and iOS? If not, is there a roadmap? A: There Android wallet is out of beta and on the Google PlayStore: iOS wallet is planned for development. The roadmap can be found here: https://colossusxt.io/roadmap/ Q: Is ColossusXT planning on partnering up with other cryptocurrency projects? Such as: Bread and EQUAL. A: ColossusXT plans on partnering with other crypto projects that make sense. We look for projects that can help alleviate some of our development work / provide quality of life upgrades to our investors so that we can focus on Colossus Grid development. When absolutely love it when the community comes to us with great projects to explore. Q: Did you ever considered a coinburn? Don't you think a coin burn will increase COLX price and sustain mass adoption? Do you plan on keeping the price of COLX in a range so the potential big investors can invest in a not so much volatile project? A**:** There are no plans to do a coinburn at this time. Please check out our section in the whitepaper about the supply. Q: what is the next big exchange for colx to be listed ? A: There are several exchanges that will be listing ColossusXT soon. Stay tuned for updates within the community as some have already been announced and future announcements.
Q: How will Colx compete with other privacy coins which claim to be better like Privacy? A: ColossusXT is not competing with other privacy coins. ColossusXT will evolve into the Colossus Grid, which is built on the backbone of a privacy blockchain. In our vision, all these other privacy coins are competing for relevancy with ColossusXT. There are also similar responses to question that may hit on specifics. Q: Does COLX have a finite number of coins like bitcoin? A: No, ColossusXT is Proof of Stake. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof-of-stake Q: What are the advantages of COLX over other competitor coins (eg. ECA)? A: The only similarities between ColossusXT and Electra is that we are both privacy blockchains. ColossusXT is very much an entirely different project that any other privacy coin in the blockchain world today. The Colossus Grid will be a huge advantage over any other privacy coin. Offering the ability for a desktop machine to rent power from others contributing to the Colossus Grid and perform and compute high level tasks. Q: How do you feel about some countries frowning upon privacy coins and how do you plan to change their minds (and what do you plan to do about it?) A: The ColossusXT team tries to view opinions from multiple perspectives so that we can understand each line of thinking. As blockchain technology becomes more widely adopted, so will the understanding of the importance of the privacy features within ColossusXT. Privacy is freedom. Q: How do you see COLX in disrupting cloud gaming services such as PlayStation Now? A: Cloud gaming services have not been discussed. Initial marketing of our private grid computing framework will be targeted at homes users, governments, and cyber security firms who may require more discretion / anonymity in their work. Q: Since colx is a privacy coin and is known for its privacy in the transactions due to which lot of money laundering and scams could take place, would colx and its community be affected due to it? And if does then how could we try to prevent it? A: ColossusXT intends to be known for the Colossus Grid. The Colossus Grid development will be moved up from Q1 2019 to Q3 2018 to reflect this message and prevent further miscommunication about what privacy means for the future of ColossusXT. Previous answers within this AMA may further elaborate on this question. Q: When do you plan to list your coin on other "bigger" exchanges? A: ColossusXT is speaking with many different exchanges. These things have many different factors. Exchanges decide on listing dates and we expect to see ColossusXT listed on larger exchanges as we approach the Colossus Grid Beta. The governance system can further assist in funding. Q: What was the rationale behind naming your coin ColossusXT? A:Colossus was a set of computers developed by British codebreakers in the years 1943–1945. XT symbolises ‘extended’ as the coin was forked from the original Cv2 coin. Q: Can you give any details about the E Commerce Marketplace, and its progress? A: The Ecommerce Marketplace is a project that will receive attention after our development pass on important privacy features for the grid. In general, our roadmap will be changing to put an emphasis on grid development. Q: How will someone access the grid, and how will you monetize using the grid? Will there be an interface that charges COLX for time on the grid or data usage? A: The Colossus Grid will be integrated within the ColossusXT wallet. Buying & Selling resources will happen within the wallet interface. You won't be able to charge for "time" on the grid, and have access to unlimited resources. The goal is to have users input what resources they need, and the price they are willing to pay. The Colossus Grid will then look for people selling resources at a value the buyer is willing to pay. Time may come into play based on which resources you are specifically asking for. Q: Are there any plans to launch an official YouTube channel with instructional videos about basic use of the wallets and features of COLX? Most people are visually set and learn much faster about wallets when actually seeing it happen before they try themselves. This might attract people to ColossusXT and also teach people about basic use of blockchain and cryptocurrency wallets. I ask this because I see a lot of users on Discord and Telegram that are still learning and are asking a lot of real basic questions. A: ColossusXT has an official YT account with instructional videos: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCmMLUSK4YoxKvrLoKJnzng Q: What are the usp's of colx in comparing to other privacy coins? A: Privacy coins are a dime a dozen. ColossusXT has different end goals than most privacy coins, and this cannot be stated enough. Our goal is not just to be another currency, but to build a sophisticated computing resource sharing architecture on top of the privacy blockchain. Q: A new exchange will probably gain more liquidity for our coin. If you might choose 3 exchanges to get COLX listed, what would be your top 3? A: ColossusXT intends to be listed on all major exchanges globally. :) Q: What is the future of privacy coins? What will be the future colx userbase (beyond the first adopters and enthusiasts)? A: The future of privacy is the same it has always been. Privacy is something each and everyone person owns, until they give it away to someone else. Who is in control of your privacy? You or another person or entity?The future of the ColossusXT user base will comprise of early adopters, enthusiast, computer science professionals, artificial intelligence, and computational linguistics professionals for which these users can utilize the Colossus Grid a wide range of needs. Q: Will ColossusXT join more exchanges soon?? A: Yes. :) Q: So when will Colossus put out lots of advertisement to the various social media sites to get better known? Like Youtube videos etc. A: As we get closer to a product launch of the Colossus Grid, you’ll begin to see more advertisements, YouTubers, and interviews. We’re looking to also provide some presentations at blockchain conferences in 2018, and 2019. Q: In your opinion, what are some of the issues holding COLX back from wider adoption? In that vein, what are some of the steps the team is considering to help address those issues? A: One of the main issues that is holding ColossusXT back from a wider adoption is our endgame is very different from other privacy coins. The Colossus Grid. In order to address this issue, the ColossusXT team intends to have a Colossus Grid Beta out by the end of Q4 and we will move development of the Colossus Grid from Q1 2019 to Q3 2018. Q: Or to see it from another perspective - what are some of the biggest issues with crypto-currency and how does COLX address those issues? A: Biggest issue is that cryptocurrency is seen as a means to make quick money, what project is going to get the biggest “pump” of the week, and there is not enough focus on building blockchain technologies that solve problems or creating legitimate business use cases. For the most part we believe the base of ColossusXT supporters see our end-game, and are willing to provide us with the time and support to complete our vision. The ColossusXT team keeps its head down and keeps pushing forward. Q: I know it's still early in the development phase but can you give a little insight into what to look forward to regarding In-wallet voting and proposals system for the community? How much power will the community have regarding the direction COLX development takes in the future? A: The budget and proposal system is detailed in the whitepaper. Masternode owners vote on and guide the development of ColossusXT by voting on proposals put forth by the community and business partners. Our goal is to make this process as easy and accessible as possible to our community. Q: Will there be an article explaining the significance of each partnership formed thus far? A: Yes, the ColossusXT team will announce partners on social media, and community outlets. A detailed article of what partnerships mean will be available on our Medium page: https://medium.com/@colossusxt Q: What potential output from the Grid is expected and what would it's use be? For example, x teraflops which could process y solutions to protein folding in z time. A: There are many uses for grid computing. A crypto enthusiast mining crypto, a cyber security professional cracking a password using brute force, or a scientist producing climate prediction models. The resources available to put towards grid projects will be determined by the number of nodes sharing resources, and the amount of resources an individual is willing to purchase with COLX. All individuals will not have access to infinite grid resources. Q: Is there a paper wallet available? A: Yes, see https://mycolxwallet.org Q: Is there a possibility of implementing quantum computer measures in the future? A: This is a great idea for potentially another project in the future. Currently this is not possible with the Colossus Grid. Instead of bits, which conventional computers use, a quantum computer uses quantum bits—known as qubits. In classical computing, a bit is a single piece of information that can exist in two states – 1 or 0. Quantum computing uses quantum bits, or 'qubits' instead. These are quantum systems with two states. However, unlike a usual bit, they can store much more information than just 1 or 0, because they can exist in any superposition of these values. Q: Do you plan to do a coin burn? A: No future coin burns are planned. Anything like this would go through a governance proposal and Masternode owners would vote on this. This is not anything we’ve seen within the community being discussed. Q: Can I check the exact number of current COLX master node and COLX staking node? A: Yes. You can view the Masternodes and the amount of ColossusXT (COLX) being staked by viewing the block explorer. Block explorer: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/colx/#!extraction Q: What incentive could we give a youtuber to do the BEST video of ColossusXT (COLX)? A: We've been approached by several YouTubers. The best thing a YouTuber can do is understand what ColossusXT is, join the community, ask questions if there is something they don't understand. The problem with many YouTubers is that some of them are just trying to get paid, they don't really care to provide context or research a project. Disclaimer: This is not all YouTubers, but many. Q: In which ways is the ColossusGrid different from other supercomputer / distributed computing projects out there. Golem comes to mind. Thanks! A: The main difference is that we are focused on the end users privacy, and the types of users that we will be targeting will be those that need more discretion / anonymity in their work. We are building framework that will continue to push the boundaries of user privacy as it relates to grid computing. Q: Can we please complete our roadmap ahead of schedule? I find most other coins that do this actually excell in terms of price and community members. Keep on top of the game :) A: The Colossus XT roadmap is a very fluid document, and it is always evolving. Some items are moved up in priority, and others are moved back. The roadmap should not be thought of something that is set in stone. Q: Does COLX have master nodes? A: Yes. ColossusXT has masternodes. Q: Have thought about providing a method to insert a form of payment in colx in any page that wants to use cryptocurrencies in a fast and simple way in order to masive adoption???? A: There is already this option.https://mycryptocheckout.com/coins/ Q: What do you think your community progress till now? A: The community has grown greatly in the last 3 months. We’re very excited to go from 13 to 100 questions in our quarterly AMA. Discord, Telegram, and Twitter are growing everyday. Q: I noticed on Roadmap: Coinomi and ahapeshift wallet integration. Can you tell me more about this? I am new in crypto and new ColX investor so I don't know much about this. Thanks and keep a good work. A: Coinomi is a universal wallet. ColossusXT will have multiple wallet platforms available to it. Shapeshift allows you to switch one crypto directly for another without the use of a coupler (BTC). Q: Is "A general-purpose decentralized marketplace" written in the whitepaper the same as "E-COMMERCE MARKETPLACE" written on the roadmap? Please tell me about "A general-purpose decentralized marketplace" or "E-COMMERCE MARKETPLACE" in detail. A: Details will be posted as we get closer to the marketplace. It will be similar to other marketplaces within blockchain. Stay tuned for more information by following us on Twitter. Q: History has shown that feature-based technologies always get replaced by technologies with platforms that incorporate those features; what is colossius big picture? A: The Colossus Grid. Which has been explained within this AMA in a few different ways. Q: What are the main objectives for COLX team this year? Provide me 5 reason why COLX will survive in a long term perspective? Do you consider masternodes working in a private easy to setup wallet on a DEX network? Already big fan, have a nice day! A: Getting into Q3 our main object is to get a working product of the Colossus Grid by the end of Q4.
Community - Our community is growing everyday as knowledge about what we’re building grows. When the Colossus Grid is online we expect expansion to grow at a rapid pace as users connect to share resources.
Team - The ColossusXT team will continue to grow. We are stewards of a great community and an amazing project. Providing a level of support currently unseen in many other projects through Discord. The team cohesion and activity within the community is a standard we intend to set within the blockchain communities.
Features - ColossusXT and The Colossus Grid will have user friendly AI. We understand the difficulties when users first enter blockchain products. The confusion between keys, sending/receiving addresses, and understanding available features within. Guides will always be published for Windows/Mac/Linux with updates so that these features can be easily understood.
Colossus Grid - The Colossus Grid answers real world problems, and provides multiple solutions while also reducing energy consumption.
Use Case - Many of the 1000+ other coins on the market don’t have the current use-case that ColossusXT has, let alone the expansion of utility use-cases in multiple sectors.
I'm writing a series about blockchain tech and possible future security risks. This is the third part of the series introducing Quantum resistant blockchains.
Part 1 and part 2 will give you usefull basic blockchain knowledge that is not explained in this part. Part 1 here Part 2 here Quantum resistant blockchains explained. - How would quantum computers pose a threat to blockchain? - Expectations in the field of quantum computer development. - Quantum resistant blockchains - Why is it easier to change cryptography for centralized systems such as banks and websites than for blockchain? - Conclusion The fact that whatever is registered on a blockchain can’t be tampered with is one of the great reasons for the success of blockchain. Looking ahead, awareness is growing in the blockchain ecosystem that quantum computers might cause the need for some changes in the cryptography that is used by blockchains to prevent hackers from forging transactions. How would quantum computers pose a threat to blockchain? First, let’s get a misconception out of the way. When talking about the risk quantum computers could pose for blockchain, some people think about the risk of quantum computers out-hashing classical computers. This, however, is not expected to pose a real threat when the time comes. This paper explains why: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.10377.pdf "In this section, we investigate the advantage a quantum computer would have in performing the hashcash PoW used by Bitcoin. Our findings can be summarized as follows: Using Grover search, a quantum computer can perform the hashcash PoW by performing quadratically fewer hashes than is needed by a classical computer. However, the extreme speed of current specialized ASIC hardware for performing the hashcash PoW, coupled with much slower projected gate speeds for current quantum architectures, essentially negates this quadratic speedup, at the current difficulty level, giving quantum computers no advantage. Future improvements to quantum technology allowing gate speeds up to 100GHz could allow quantum computers to solve the PoW about 100 times faster than current technology. However, such a development is unlikely in the next decade, at which point classical hardware may be much faster, and quantum technology might be so widespread that no single quantum enabled agent could dominate the PoW problem." The real point of vulnerability is this: attacks on signatures wherein the private key is derived from the public key. That means that if someone has your public key, they can also calculate your private key, which is unthinkable using even today’s most powerful classical computers. So in the days of quantum computers, the public-private keypair will be the weak link. Quantum computers have the potential to perform specific kinds of calculations significantly faster than any normal computer. Besides that, quantum computers can run algorithms that take fewer steps to get to an outcome, taking advantage of quantum phenomena like quantum entanglement and quantum superposition. So quantum computers can run these certain algorithms that could be used to make calculations that can crack cryptography used today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptic-curve_cryptography#Quantum_computing_attacks and https://eprint.iacr.org/2017/598.pdf Most blockchains use Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) cryptography. Using a quantum computer, Shor's algorithm can be used to break ECDSA. (See for reference: https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0301141 and pdf: https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/0301141.pdf ) Meaning: they can derive the private key from the public key. So if they got your public key (and a quantum computer), then they got your private key and they can create a transaction and empty your wallet. RSA has the same vulnerability while RSA will need a stronger quantum computer to be broken than ECDSA. At this point in time, it is already possible to run Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer. However, the amount of qubits available right now makes its application limited. But it has been proven to work, we have exited the era of pure theory and entered the era of practical applications:
2001: First execution of Shor's algorithm at IBM's Almaden Research Center and Stanford University. The paper here: (Experimental realization of Shor's quantum factoring algorithm using nuclear magnetic resonance Lieven M. K. Vandersypen, https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0112176 )
So far Shor's algorithm has the most potential, but new algorithms might appear which are more efficient. Algorithms are another area of development that makes progress and pushes quantum computer progress forward. A new algorithm called Variational Quantum Factoring is being developed and it looks quite promising. " The advantage of this new approach is that it is much less sensitive to error, does not require massive error correction, and consumes far fewer resources than would be needed with Shor’s algorithm. As such, it may be more amenable for use with the current NISQ (Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum) computers that will be available in the near and medium term." https://quantumcomputingreport.com/news/zapata-develops-potential-alternative-to-shors-factoring-algorithm-for-nisq-quantum-computers/ It is however still in development, and only works for 18 binary bits at the time of this writing, but it shows new developments that could mean that, rather than a speedup in quantum computing development posing the most imminent threat to RSA and ECDSA, a speedup in the mathematical developments could be even more consequential. More info on VQF here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.08927 It all comes down to this: when your public key is visible, which is always necessary to make transactions, you are at some point in the future vulnerable for quantum attacks. (This also goes for BTC, which uses the hash of the public key as an address, but more on that in the following articles.) If you would have keypairs based on post quantum cryptography, you would not have to worry about that since in that case not even a quantum computer could derive your private key from your public key. The conclusion is that future blockchains should be quantum resistant, using post-quantum cryptography. It’s very important to realize that post quantum cryptography is not just adding some extra characters to standard signature schemes. It’s the mathematical concept that makes it quantum resistant. to become quantm resistant, the algorithm needs to be changed. “The problem with currently popular algorithms is that their security relies on one of three hard mathematical problems: the integer factorization problem, the discrete logarithm problem or the elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem. All of these problems can be easily solved on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm. Even though current, publicly known, experimental quantum computers lack processing power to break any real cryptographic algorithm, many cryptographers are designing new algorithms to prepare for a time when quantum computing becomes a threat.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-quantum_cryptography Expectations in the field of quantum computer development. To give you an idea what the expectations of quantum computer development are in the field (Take note of the fact that the type and error rate of the qubits is not specified in the article. It is not said these will be enough to break ECDSA or RSA, neither is it said these will not be enough. What these articles do show, is that a huge speed up in development is expected.):
When will ECDSA be at risk? Estimates are only estimates, there are several to be found so it's hard to really tell. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has made a very thourough report on the development of quantum computing. The report came out in the end of 2018. They brought together a group of scientists of over 70 people from different interconnecting fields in quantum computing who, as a group, have come up with a close to 200 pages report on the development, funding, implications and upcoming challenges for quantum computing development. But, even though this report is one of the most thourough up to date, it doesn't make an estimate on when the risk for ECDSA or RSA would occur. They acknowledge this is quite impossible due to the fact there are a lot of unknowns and due to the fact that they have to base any findings only on publicly available information, obviously excluding any non available advancements from commercial companies and national efforts. So if this group of specialized scientists can’t make an estimate, who can make that assessment? Is there any credible source to make an accurate prediction? The conclusion at this point of time can only be that we do not know the answer to the big question "when". Now if we don't have an answer to the question "when", then why act? The answer is simple. If we’re talking about security, most take certainty over uncertainty. To answer the question when the threat materializes, we need to guess. Whether you guess soon, or you guess not for the next three decades, both are guesses. Going for certain means you'd have to plan for the worst, hope for the best. No matter how sceptical you are, having some sort of a plan ready is a responsible thing to do. Obviously not if you're just running a blog about knitting. But for systems that carry a lot of important, private and valuable information, planning starts today. The NAS describes it quite well. What they lack in guessing, they make up in advice. They have a very clear advice:
"Even if a quantum computer that can decrypt current cryptographic ciphers is more than a decade off, the hazard of such a machine is high enough—and the time frame for transitioning to a new security protocol is sufficiently long and uncertain—that prioritization of the development, standardization, and deployment of post-quantum cryptography is critical for minimizing the chance of a potential security and privacy disaster."
Another organization that looks ahead is the National Security Agency (NSA) They have made a threat assessment in 2015. In August 2015, NSA announced that it is planning to transition "in the not too distant future" (statement of 2015) to a new cipher suite that is resistant to quantum attacks. "Unfortunately, the growth of elliptic curve use has bumped up against the fact of continued progress in the research on quantum computing, necessitating a re-evaluation of our cryptographic strategy." NSA advised: "For those partners and vendors that have not yet made the transition to Suite B algorithms, we recommend not making a significant expenditure to do so at this point but instead to prepare for the upcoming quantum resistant algorithm transition.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NSA_Suite_B_Cryptography#cite_note-nsa-suite-b-1 What these organizations both advice is to start taking action. They don't say "implement this type of quantum resistant cryptography now". They don't say when at all. As said before, the "when" question is one that is a hard one to specify. It depends on the system you have, the value of the data, the consequences of postponing a security upgrade. Like I said before: you just run a blog, or a bank or a cryptocurrency? It's an individual risk assesment that's different for every organization and system. Assesments do need to be made now though. What time frame should organisationds think about when changing cryptography? How long would it take to go from the current level of security to fully quantum resistant security? What changes does it require to handle bigger signatures and is it possible to use certain types of cryptography that require to keep state? Do your users need to act, or can al work be done behind the user interface? These are important questions that one should start asking. I will elaborate on these challenges in the next articles. Besides the unsnswered question on "when", the question on what type of quantum resistant cryptography to use is unanswered too. This also depends on the type of system you use. The NSA and NAS both point to NIST as the authority on developments and standardization of quantum resistant cryptography. NIST is running a competition right now that should end up in one or more standards for quantum resistant cryptography. The NIST competition handles criteria that should filter out a type of quantum resistant cryptography that is feasable for a wide range of systems. This takes time though. There are some new algorithms submitted and assessing the new and the more well known ones must be done thouroughly. They intend to wrap things up around 2022 - 2024. From a blockchain perspective it is important to notice that a specific type of quantum resistant cryptography is excluded from the NIST competition: Stateful Hash-Based Signatures. (LMS and XMSS) This is not because these are no good. In fact they are excelent and XMSS is accepted to be provable quantum resistant. It's due to the fact that implementations will need to be able to securely deal with the requirement to keep state. And this is not a given for most systems. At this moment NIST intends to approve both LMS and XMSS for a specific group of applications that can deal with the statefull properties. The only loose end at this point is an advice for which applications LMS and XMSS will be adviced and for what applications it is discouraged. These questions will be answered in the beginning of april this year: https://csrc.nist.gov/news/2019/stateful-hbs-request-for-public-comments This means that quite likely LMS and XMSS will be the first type of standardized quantum resistant cryptography ever. To give a small hint: keeping state, is pretty much a naturally added property of blockchain. Quantum resistant blockchains “Quantum resistant” is only used to describe networks and cryptography that are secure against any attack by a quantum computer of any size in the sense that there is no algorithm known that makes it possible for a quantum computer to break the applied cryptography and thus that system. Also, to determine if a project is fully quantum resistant, you would need to take in account not only how a separate element that is implemented in that blockchain is quantum resistant, but also the way it is implemented. As with any type of security check, there should be no backdoors, in which case your blockchain would be just a cardboard box with bulletproof glass windows. Sounds obvious, but since this is kind of new territory, there are still some misconceptions. What is considered safe now, might not be safe in the age of quantum computers. I will address some of these in the following chapters, but first I will elaborate a bit about the special vulnerability of blockchain compared to centralized systems. Why is it easier to change cryptography for centralized systems such as banks and websites than for blockchain? Developers of a centralized system can decide from one day to the other that they make changes and update the system without the need for consensus from the nodes. They are in charge, and they can dictate the future of the system. But a decentralized blockchain will need to reach consensus amongst the nodes to update. Meaning that the majority of the nodes will need to upgrade and thus force the blockchain to only have the new signatures to be valid. We can’t have the old signature scheme to be valid besides the new quantum resistant signature scheme. Because that would mean that the blockchain would still allow the use of vulnerable, old public- and private keys and thus the old vulnerable signatures for transactions. So at least the majority of the nodes need to upgrade to make sure that blocks which are constructed using the old rules and thus the old vulnerable signature scheme, are rejected by the network. This will eventually result in a fully upgraded network which only accepts the new post quantum signature scheme in transactions. So, consensus is needed. The most well-known example of how that can be a slow process is Bitcoin’s need to scale. Even though everybody agrees on the need for a certain result, reaching consensus amongst the community on how to get to that result is a slow and political process. Going quantum resistant will be no different, and since it will cause lesser performance due to bigger signatures and it will need hardware upgrades quite likely it will be postponed rather than be done fast and smooth due to lack of consensus. And because there are several quantum resistant signature schemes to choose from, agreement an automatic given. The discussion will be which one to use, and how and when to implement it. The need for consensus is exclusively a problem decentralized systems like blockchain will face. Another issue for decentralized systems that change their signature scheme, is that users of decentralized blockchains will have to manually transfe migrate their coins/ tokens to a quantum safe address and that way decouple their old private key and activate a new quantum resistant private key that is part of an upgraded quantum resistant network. Users of centralized networks, on the other hand, do not need to do much, since it would be taken care of by their centralized managed system. As you know, for example, if you forget your password of your online bank account, or some website, they can always send you a link, or secret question, or in the worst case they can send you mail by post to your house address and you would be back in business. With the decentralized systems, there is no centralized entity who has your data. It is you who has this data, and only you. So in the centralized system there is a central entity who has access to all the data including all the private accessing data, and therefore this entity can pull all the strings. It can all be done behind your user interface, and you probably wouldn’t notice a thing. And a third issue will be the lost addresses. Since no one but you has access to your funds, your funds will become inaccessible once you lose your private key. From that point, an address is lost, and the funds on that address can never be moved. So after an upgrade, those funds will never be moved to a quantum resistant address, and thus will always be vulnerable to a quantum hack. To summarize: banks and websites are centralized systems, they will face challenges, but decentralized systems like blockchain will face some extra challenges that won't apply for centralized systems.
Updating the signature scheme will need consensus in the sense that all nodes need to update after implementation of a quantum resistant signature scheme.
Users of blockchain will personally need to move their funds from old addresses to new quantum resistant addresses. You won't need to move your bank funds.
Lost addresses where people lost access to their funds will never be moved and stay vulnerable to quantum hacks. Blockchain doesn't know their users, can't communicate with them and won't be able to distinguish coins on lost addresses from coins from users who still have access but somehow have not migrated their coins after a quantum resistant update. So burning lost coins will be legally a big issue.
PGA: No Frills DFS Data - Honda Classic Recap & Discussion of Golf Metrics
https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/pga-no-frills-dfs-data-honda-classic-recap-discussion-of-golf-metrics-2945909 So, this slate was fantastic. I had a player pool of 22 guys and only 3 missed the cut with another as an MDF. While I only had 1 guy in the top 5 this time, it was one of my most exposed players in Lucas Glover. I had 3 more at T9 so 4 of the top 11 guys and a bunch more T20 or better. I didn't have any lineups packed with the top 5 so didn't have any huge individual scores but when most lineups went 6/6 or 5/6 with a bunch of T20 or better players, it's always going to be a very good week despite not hitting yahtzee. Again, to recap, here was my player pool in order of exposure. T30 Justin Thomas T4 Lucas Glover MDF Graeme McDowell T9 Sergio Garcia T59 Zach Johnson T36 Daniel Berger T16 Michael Thompson T59 Vaughn Taylor T36 Gary Woodland T51 Russell Knox CUT Adam Scott T20 Chesson Hadley CUT Luke List T16 Billy Horschel T20 Brian Stuard T36 Byeong Hun An CUT Cameron Smith T36 J.T. Poston T9 Jason Kokrak T9 Jim Furyk T20 Matt Wallace T20 Talor Gooch My model once again pushed Furyk (it tends to really like him, Chez Reavie and Phil Michelson) but this time it wasn't overboard about it. At the end I didn't use him in any of the purely model driven lines but ended up trusting the model when I created the "homer line" where I choose 1-2 guys I really want added in and exclude a few I'm already heavy on so I could jam in Adam Scott again and the lineup said fill it out with Furyk. Was pleasantly surprised with a T9 from the guy and it will give me a little bit more faith when the model recommends him. Now back to Adam Scott, this is why I limit my ability to directly construct a lineup to only 1 dart. The only things in Scott's favor were course history, tout coverage and Vegas odds. Everything else said he's a fine golfer but way too overpriced and since my model works rather holistically, all those things were already accounted for so I already had a smittering of him out there. Yet I bought into the narrative and jammed him in there. I don't regret the decision, I'd do it again. But this is exactly why I build a model, because if I built my 10x gpp lineups by hand, I'd likely have gone with him in a lot more lineups because his narrative was very compelling. The other guys to miss the cut in Smith and List, well, I stand by those choices as well. Half the field needs to be cut, so even if everyone golfed the game of their lives you'd still get half the field get cut despite hitting peak form. Kind of like if everyone went to an Ivy League then we'd have Yale PhDs flipping burgers kind of scenario. In short, don't worry about it. Even the best golfers will miss the cut. You may also recall the model was suggesting Ortiz and Blayne and I vetoed them because I didn't feel the data was reliable. They both missed the cut. I would have been about 1/3 exposed to each had I not manually sifted through and error checked my lineups, something I sometimes don't get a chance to do because I didn't start running the model until near lock. It would have been disastrous had I not seen those unfamiliar names and decided to take a closer look. My cash games went exceedingly well as I chose one of my lineups that did fairly well to use in cash. I cashed in every 50/50 and double up (sometimes outright winning them) and won all but 2 of my h2hs. There's a good story here about why, despite that I play most of my volume in cash, that I go with only 1 lineup. There's one specific player I've been matching up with quite a bit. It started out in lower stakes and I believe he's now tilted and trying to recover because he keeps upping the stakes but I keep taking em. This past slate he posted a $100 h2h and I took it. He then matched up with me in another one for $5. He decided to go with 2 lineups, one of them performed pretty poorly, another would have done very well in a GPP. Given how pleased I am writing about this, I bet you can imagine which one of those I lost and which I won. This is why I just create one cash lineup and stick with it because I've been on his side of things in the past. If he wins both then it wouldn't matter, if he loses both then it wouldn't matter. If he loses the $5 wins the $100 it doesn't matter... but if he loses the $100 but wins the $5 then he goes on crazy monkey tilt. It doesn't matter at all that mathematically speaking it doesn't make a difference (so long as both lineups had equal assumed expectations), emotions still run high in this and unless you're doing very high volume at leveled stakes (not 2 matchups of 20x difference in size) and not going to track the individual results but look at the big picture then it's fine. But nobody does this, we aren't androids, when you win you win, when you lose you lose. This is why although I put way more in cash than gpp and bad cash lineup can sink me, I'm still taking a binary approach with cash games. I'm not taking a 75% indifference with a 25% chance of losing my god damn mind because the h2h that mattered was the one that failed. Fail like a stoic with a single cash lineup that gives 100% indifference. Now then, some people have been asking me to go into more detail about about the data that use to create the lineups. I'll just reiterate again that I'm never going to explain how the sausage is made. But I will be serving plenty of sausage and give you a general idea what animal it came from. Today I'm going to talk about specifically how most of my research really demonstrates just how stupid most golf stats are. I really want to be 100% sure and am in the process of scraping an absurdly large database containing several decades. And since I'm doing this on my free time, it'll take some time before I parse and analyze everything. I don't want to make the very bold claims I already believe to true without further studying the matter and really ensuring my thoughts are real and it's not the product of bad calculations or insufficient sample size. But, what I've discovered thus far, is that all those stats are just window dressing. Saying someone led the field shots gained x is fundamentally no different than saying "they did well and had a good tournament." Things like shots gained track results not process. So it's much like tracking wins and rbis. Yes, the best hitters and the best pitchers in baseball often lead the league in those metrics, but we all know why they aren't good predictive tools. For example, when my beloved Red Sox signed Dante Bichette in 2001, there was all this talk about him having led the major leagues in RBIs the past few seasons. He just had his epic year, two years ago driving in 133 runs and the year before got 90. While he was aging and slowing down, I distinctly remember a lot confusion over why we signed this elite hitter but then used him in a platoon. I'd be at Fenway and as the Red Sox lost, people would openly question the wisdom of having one of the best hitters in the game ride it out on the bench. This was 2 years before Moneyball was published and while front offices knew the reality of the situation (third team in 2 years and out of the league after that season), the average hard core Red Sox fan would just scratch their head wondering why we didn't give Dante a little more of a chance to show he still had it. I feel this is the situation today with golf and golf statistics while what we have today is an improvement of the past - we take it for granted that it comes with the same authority as so wOBA or usage. We know that the winners won, but we don't know much else and shots gained is basically more or less a fancy way to say someone did a better job. If someone gets a birdie on a par 4, their SG will improve by about... drumroll please... 1. So you could just simply compare scores - IE look at end of tournament standings. Yes, there is definitely some nuance and they do factor in the relative difficulty of that specific par 4 and if I didn't feel like there was some actionable data out there I wouldn't bother with any of this. But I believe that way too much weight is put into this, whether I'm right or wrong, I will follow up on this in much more detail once it's no longer a hunch but rather indisputable. The reason why gathering this data is difficult is that it's restricted - which itself should be a bit of a red flag. I'll also be reading "Every Shot Counts" soon, which is a book written by the creator of the Shots Gained metric. I really don't want to make any further and sweeping judgements until I read the author's long and detailed explanation of the metric. But really, we can all see the smoking gun https://registrations.pgatourhq.com/forms/shotlinkintel/ for ourselves to see that the process by which they used to record shots gained is kept a secret and they don't disclose the data. Even prior to them ghosting us, access to the statistics themselves was restricted - you need to apply for access. The twitter account still exists and it's like everyone vanished into thin air, the last tweet https://twitter.com/ShotLink/status/893531791297978368 was well over a year ago and simply a picture of a golf course as if nothing was about the change. Also, the PGA still insists "All strokes gained statistics are calculated using ShotLink, the PGA TOUR's real-time scoring system powered by CDW. https://www.pgatour.com/news/2016/05/31/strokes-gained-defined.html But since it's so secretive, we really don't know much about it. I'm not talking conspiracies or anything, they could have a very good data collection system that's phenomenal, but the very notion that the PGA doesn't even bother telling anyone how the data is collected and yet nobody is asking any questions should tell you this isn't exactly the most objective market. So basically, I'm very confused by Shots Gained as a metric, can find very little information on it and what I can find is out of date and contradictory and seems to imply it's more or less no different than a nuanced version of looking at the final standings. I want to say it's bullshit, but I'm just reserving final judgement and simply labeling as sketchy for now. So then we should look at results yeah? Yes, but this is largely what pricing is based upon, so not much of an edge there. So shall we look at ranking? Yes, let's take a look at OWGR. When I first started with golf, I knew nothing and had nothing to base anything on other than seeing their pricing and recent point accumulations. Since Tiger Woods wasn't playing in that event, it was all entirely new names, just names I'd hear in passing while switching off ESPN as they were starting their golf coverage. So naturally, when I saw each golfer had a world ranking, I viewed that as a cheat sheet. From the very beginning, one of the formulas I've used to develop lineups was as simple as putting together the golfers within budget that collectively had the lowest aggregate world ranking number. Why am I suddenly speaking in such specifics you ask? Because it's a horrible DFS metric and nobody else is doing it (I track gpps lineups to see what others are doing, there are a few of these more simple formulas that pop up periodically, this is not one of them) so it's not exactly as if disclosing this information will make my opponents that much stronger. My OWGR lineup has in fact been the single worst performing in cash and the 2nd to worst performing in gpps of the dozens of lineup models I have. Thankfully, I don't play it because it's so bad but I keep tracking it and recording how it would have performed just for fun these days. The only lineup that performed worse than the OWGR lineup in GPPS, well that one heavily factors in OWGR as well :). OWGR is just a terrible, terrible metric for DFS. Yes, it will give you the cream of the crop like the Dustin Johnsons, but you can never afford a lineup of Dustin Johnsons, you'll have to start digging deeper and pulling up min priced guys like Satoshi Kodaira - mr bitcoin himself. Someone who if you've been reading my stuff, is the entire reason I stopped playing any lineup that had OWGR as a primary indicator. Now Satoshi, despite being a pretty horrible DFS play most of the time, is a great example of everything wrong with OWGR. His Fedex Cup rank is currently 160 and has never been better than 93, but his world rank is perplexingly 59. In 2018, he played 18 tournaments and finished under par only twice. He missed more cuts than he made as well. I could be mistaken, but it seems that he got into some majors via a sponsor in 2017 and 2018 and managed to do alright in them. He also ended up winning one of the tournaments he played in last year. When researching OWGR to figure out how it came about and how it is calculated, I learned a lot. Basically, it's nothing more than party planning. A golf course in Scotland wanted to figure out whom to invite to compete in their tournament and invented the system. It weighs the strength of the field very heavily in rewarding points- and the strength of the field is - yup - you guessed it - determined by people already ranked by the system. So if Dustin Johnson cloned himself and kept playing tournaments exclusive to him and his equally ranked clones, they'd forever hold onto the top rankings. If OWGR was an excel sheet, the creator would get an error popup upon loading it up each day due to circular references. So, Satoshi I'm sure is a great golfer, anyone there should be, but his ranking is very artificially skewered up because he managed to make the cut and finish around 50th in some really packed majors that had a lot of heavy hitters. In fact, the ranking system is so completely absurd, that any millionaire can get themselves world ranked pretty easily. They just need to do something like sponsor a Pro-Am at some odd but counted tour like the Alps Tour and then invite the guys ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd to compete and filling out the rest of the field with toddlers and yourself. You would be assured a 4th place finish. Yet you didn't beat any of the top 3 golfers in the world. You just beat 100 toddlers. Yet you still get the high ranking because they get 45, 37 and 32 respective points for strength of field, which is greater than if you had a tournament of the golfers ranked 93rd through 200 playing. Finishing 4th behind the only 3 adults and beating 100 toddlers has the same impact as finishing 4th in a field of 107 of the greatest golfers in the world. http://www.owgr.com/about Finishing 4th and beating 100 toddlers will grant you the same amount of points as finishing 20th at a major. That's how utterly stupid this rating system is. Obviously I'm using some extreme edge cases, it's very likely they would see through that scheme and not count it, but you get the idea of how inconsistent the system is. If you simply altered the PGA tour to the top 3 golfers and then a bunch of amateurs, those amateurs would soon arbitrarily be some of the highest rated in the world themselves, thus feeding itself. This is why I call my OWGR model Ouroboros https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouroboros Dustin Johnson doesn't play defense. He isn't jumping out of the sand trap and blocking your approach shot. Him finishing in front of you has zero impact on how well you performed compared to him. Yet if you simply show up and play in enough events where he easily beats you, you'll end up with a solid world ranking. This is an absurd system. When I researched OWGR, I was simply shocked it was how some random guy created an invitation list for a tournament and because golf feels the need to be so full of tradition they just made that the official world rankings. Don't get me wrong, the top OWGR guys are all very good DFS plays because they are winners. However, after a certain point you're not dealing with anything at all reliable. I'm not sure at which point it gets diluted, but after a certain point, that metric becomes just as unstable as Bitcoin. I find it very amusing that the indicator that showed me the flaws with OWGR after a certain stage is named Satoshi. I'm also fully aware of how difficult it is to quantify something so intangible as golf. However, there's no doubt in my mind that there must be a significantly better manner than what is currently used. But, whether or not my hunch is right or wrong, we still have a system where the data is all secretly gathered and stored by the PGA. That's something everyone should be aware of as they set their lineups. Good luck everyone. Will dive deeper into the shots gained after I get around to buying and reading the book and finally finish analyzing that data. I could very well come back here in two weeks apologizing for my ignorance that gave me the gall to question such genius. In the meantime, good luck grinding out there and I'll post again in a few days with my player pool for the next event.
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